ErotemeAI vs User Predictions
The difference between AI-generated and user-created predictions on Eroteme.
Eroteme supports two types of predictions: AI-generated and user-created. Both feed into the same peer-to-peer betting system, but they're created differently and serve different purposes.
Side-by-Side Comparison
| AI Prediction (Standard) | AI Prediction (Eroteme) | User Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Created by | Single AI model | 8-agent pipeline + meta-judge | Individual user |
| Analysis | One model's perspective | 5 providers across 8 specialised roles | User's own research |
| Refund guarantee | Yes — claim refund if wrong | Yes — claim refund if wrong | No |
| Output | Probability + reasoning | Probability + confidence interval + per-agent breakdown | User-set confidence + video/text |
| Cost | $1 USDC | $5 USDC | Free |
| Betting | Same P2P pool | Same P2P pool | Same P2P pool |
| Resolution | Automatic via Polymarket | Automatic via Polymarket | Automatic via Polymarket |
When to Use AI Predictions
AI predictions are best when:
- You want data-driven analysis — The AI pipeline processes real-time news, market data, and multiple perspectives simultaneously
- You want accountability — The refund guarantee means you only pay for correct predictions
- You're exploring unfamiliar markets — Let the AI do the research on topics outside your expertise
- You want multiple perspectives fast — Eight agents analysing simultaneously is faster than doing the research yourself (Eroteme tier)
When to Use User Predictions
User predictions are best when:
- You have domain expertise — Your knowledge of a specific sport, market, or topic may exceed what AI models can surface
- You want to build reputation — User predictions build your personal accuracy track record and leaderboard position
- You have an original take — If you disagree with the AI consensus, create your own prediction and let the market decide
- You want to share video analysis — User predictions support video content, letting you explain your reasoning in your own voice
Bettability Score
When an AI prediction diverges significantly from current Polymarket odds, this creates a bettability signal. For example, if Polymarket prices an event at 40% but Eroteme AI rates it at 75%, there may be an edge worth betting on.
Both AI and user predictions can diverge from market odds — the betting pool doesn't differentiate between prediction types.
How They Work Together
Both prediction types feed into the same P2P betting pool. When an AI prediction is published, other users can bet for or against it — exactly the same as a user prediction.
You can create a user prediction on the same event as an existing AI prediction. If you think the AI got it wrong, publish your own take and let the community weigh both.