Core Concepts

Prediction Markets

A prediction market lets participants trade on the outcome of future events. Eroteme connects to Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market, as its source of truth.

When Polymarket resolves a market (e.g., "Will Bitcoin reach $100k by June?"), Eroteme automatically resolves all linked predictions and settles betting pools.

All Eroteme predictions are binary — YES or NO. Even for multi-outcome Polymarket markets (e.g., "Who will win the election?"), creators pick a single outcome and predict YES (it happens) or NO (it doesn't).

Polymarket: "Winner of 2024 Election" → [Candidate A, Candidate B, Candidate C]
Eroteme:    Creator picks Candidate A → predicts YES
            Counter-bettors bet NO (Candidate A won't win)

Outcome Labels

Markets may use custom labels instead of "Yes" / "No":

Market	YES Label	NO Label
Default	Yes	No
Price market	Up	Down
Custom	Heads	Tails

The internal prediction value is always YES or NO, with outcomeLabels mapping the display text.

Betting Pools

When a creator stakes USDC, a betting pool is created on-chain. Other users bet against the creator at 1:1 odds.

Creator stakes on their prediction (YES or NO)
Counter-bettors take the opposite side
Smart contract holds all funds until resolution
2% platform fee is taken from the losing side

Resolution Flow

1. Creator publishes prediction linked to Polymarket market
2. Users bet for/against
3. Polymarket resolves the market
4. Cron job detects resolution
5. Smart contract settles pool
6. Winners withdraw their USDC

Gasless Transactions

Users with Magic wallets get gasless betting through Pimlico smart accounts. The platform sponsors gas fees — users only need USDC.

Reputation System

Creator reputation is built from:

Accuracy rate — Correct predictions / total resolved
Total predictions — Volume of market calls
Confidence calibration — How well confidence levels match outcomes
Leaderboard ranking — Global rank among all predictors