Resolution & Accuracy

Resolution

Predictions resolve automatically when the linked Polymarket market settles. There's no manual intervention needed.

Resolution States

What Happens on Resolution

1. Prediction status updates — Marked correct or incorrect
2. Betting pool settles — Smart contract determines winners
3. Accuracy stats recalculate — Creator's accuracy rate updates
4. Notifications sent — Creator and bettors are notified
5. Leaderboard updates — Rankings adjust based on new data

Accuracy Tracking

Every creator has an accuracy profile:

Accuracy Rate = Correct Predictions / Total Resolved Predictions

Accuracy Breakdown

• Overall accuracy — Across all categories
• Category accuracy — Per-category breakdown (Sports, Politics, etc.)
• Recent accuracy — Last 30 days performance
• Streak — Current winning/losing streak

Confidence Calibration

If creators set confidence levels, the platform tracks calibration:

Calibration measures whether a 70% confidence prediction
is correct ~70% of the time.

Perfect calibration: Stated confidence = Actual accuracy
Over-confident: States 90% but correct only 60%
Under-confident: States 50% but correct 80%

Leaderboard

The global leaderboard ranks creators by:

1. Accuracy rate (primary)
2. Total predictions (tiebreaker)
3. Category expertise (per-category rankings)

Minimum 5 resolved predictions to appear on the leaderboard.